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Caspar Henderson is an environmental journalist is now researching the loss of coral reefs due to human-induced Climate Change. His project, Coral Bones asks whether tropical coral reefs will be the first ecosystem to be eliminated by global warming. Caspar's blog page is at: coralstory.blogspot
Coral Bones Will tropical coral reefs be the first ecosystem to be eliminated by global warming? Friday, November 25, 2005Glimmer of hope?
From Permuteran,
the location of the Biorock workshop, where the internet is as slow as the pace
of life in the Balinese villages, I read about "new work" from Ray Berkelmans
and colleagues at AIMS reportedly showing that corals may be more adaptable to
climate change than previously thought. Friday, November 18, 2005Nailed to its perchA reminder from Ove Hoegh-Gulberg that the Great Barrier Reef could be 95% dead by 2050. Wednesday, November 16, 2005Travel
From 20 Nov to
about 2 Dec I will be on the first field trip for this project - to Permuteran
in Bali, Indonesia, where I'll attend the
Third Biorock Workshop, and then to Kuching in Sarawak, Malaysia, where I
will take part in a panel discussion at the
International Media Environment Summit (courtesy of the British Council and
the event organisers). Thursday, November 10, 2005Coral ABC
Charles Birkeland,
who is with the Hawaii Cooperative Fishery Research Unit, wrote earlier today to
say: Wednesday, November 09, 2005A very short introduction
Someone said that
the previous post could be a bit hard for some people to read. Sorry about that!
Here is basic overview of the project. Coral reefs are going extinct. It’s happening now – not at some vague point in the future – and it will be the first eradication of an entire ecosystem as a result of human activities. The direct consequences for hundreds of millions of people could be catastrophic. The loss to humanity will be irreparable and without precedent. Is this scare-mongering or - as some scientists believe – for real? If so, what can be done and by who? Can culprits and accomplices be identified and if so what are their names and addresses? What will the destruction do to our sense of ourselves and our place on the planet? There is no shortage of brilliant, detailed practical work by hundreds or thousands of outstanding people researching the challenges and possible solutions. So why an investigation by a non-specialist with outputs such as a book intended for a wide non-specialist public?
The official story Officially, things are bad but not terminal. The reefs may be only half dead by mid century (IUCN, GCRMN). Unquestionably, the great majority if not all of this destruction either is or will be a direct result of human action. Numbers and percentages are clinical, detached from reality. They don’t convey the waste and the brutal mess. A large part of one of the most extraordinary and beautiful phenomenon on Earth have been strip-mined, bombed to smithereens, poisoned or overwhelmed by sewage and pollution, leaving nothing but a graveyard with a few scavengers picking over the bones. The cost in misery and human death has been immense and is likely to increase. Without coral reefs, fisheries disappear and people starve, and shorelines are dangerously exposed to rising sea levels and tidal waves. The official line remains resolutely optimistic. “We firmly believe that the concerted efforts of the global community can halt and even reverse the decline in the world’s coral reefs”, says the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (the world authority) bouncing up like Tigger after a bad day. “The situation is not hopeless”. It’s probably true that a lot can be done. But even if, by a series of miracle of political will, vastly more sensible actions are taken (and there are inspiring and controversial examples) – even then, a dark shadow looms that could make all efforts irrelevant; something that many officials – wary of seeming like doom mongers – don’t always like to talk about. The mass mortality of 1998, in which 80% of corals in many parts of the Indian Ocean died, was supposed to be something that happens once every thousand years or more. But such events are likely to happen frequently in the 21st century. The reason is climate change, and in particular rapid changes in the oceans (see Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2004 ). Ocean temperatures are rising fast – faster than some climatologists and oceanologists had anticipated until recently – and corals are vulnerable to small temperature rises (ibid). In addition, a phenomenon known as ocean acidification, which until recently has been little studied, could lead to even more dramatic changes (Royal Society, June 2005). Questions How all of this plays out is highly uncertain. Cascades of coral death with knock-on economic and political instability that in turn causes more destruction? Maybe. But where, when, and how much? How serious is this threat compared to others? This is an exercise in journalism and science writing, not a crystal ball. But it may help to clarify a picture that, so far, is little understood. It will, I hope, help mobilise capacity to think and engage seriously with the challenges. To take one example, is one scientist I talked to right when he says we should essentially forget the corals of Florida and the entire Caribbean – part of the most wonderful natural heritage of the Americas but now degraded beyond hope and in the last stages of meltdown? This investigation – based on extensive interviews, travel and other research – will document the extent of the crisis (or the hype), explore what is being done and what can be done, and reflects on what it means. And it will tell the stories of the people on the edge, trying to change things for the better. Monday, November 07, 2005Coral and global catastrophesHere's an elevator speech for this project: Tropical corals reefs may be first entire ecosystem to be eliminated as a result of climate change, in combination with other factors. Is this alarmism? Half-truth? What – really – can and should be done? Reefs are vital to the lives hundreds of millions of people. Public understanding and awareness are at a very low level. A popular, accessible but serious publishing project, including a book, that reaches large numbers of people can help. There is no shortage of people ready to doubt and discourage, or to say there will be little interest in this endeavour. Well, we’ll see. Even if the threats to coral reefs are serious, how high should they rank on a list of global priorities? The distinguished climatologist Hans Joachim ("John") Schellnhuber does not, for example, include them in his map of "Earth System Tipping Points" (see summary at Oops). I recently wrote to ask him why. He said:
"I fully
agree with you that the tropical coral reefs are endangered by global
warming and - very important - ocean acidification. The reason why I did not
include them as an "Earth System Tipping Point" is the fact that there is no
clear analysis available yet how their destruction would affect the
planetary machinery as a whole (or how their decline would at least impact
on a regional scale). It is obvious that there will be local effects like
coastal destabilization. I answered that I did not know any good arguments for expecting large-scale impacts on the "planetary machinery as a whole", and sent John’s comments to Tom Goreau of the Global Coral Reef Alliance. Here are extracts from Tom’s response: "I very much like John's mode of thinking and am delighted that this is reaching the popular press. …the current generation of climate models appear to be missing the vast bulk of positive feedback mechanisms that MUST exist in the Earth climate system [and] whose existence is revealed by analysis of the long term empirical climate data (ice cores, deep sea cores, etc.) which is why I trust data far more than models. We all agree qualitatively that things will get worse much faster than models suggest, but we really don't know how high they will get and how long this will take, due to uncertainty about the actual rates. …For example our global coral reef [sea surface temperature] database shows that there are already important changes in ocean circulation taking place in every part of the ocean. These have profound effects on climate change, but are not included in the models. We are seeing an increase in the flow of heat in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio systems, and big increase in the Antarctic circumpolar current, for example, two of [John’s] key areas. The Amazon is in fact changing faster than recognized, witness the unprecedented drought now underway. Most Caribbean corals are now dying of high temperature. …While I agree with [Caspar] that coral reefs should be listed in ALL global compendia of major tipping points because it is the richest ecosystem in the sea and the first which will be effectively destroyed by global warming with devastating environmental and economic consequences to over 100 countries from loss of biodiversity, fisheries, shore protection, tourism, etc. [But] John is right that this does not trigger global environmental changes. Coral reefs account for half of the limestone burial in the sea, and although many naively think this is a CO2 sink, it is in fact the major natural net source of CO2 to the atmosphere...the net amount of CO2 added to the atmosphere by coral reef growth is 50 times LESS than we put in from fossil fuels, which gives you an idea how anthropogenic effects have overwhelmed natural processes. The bottom line is that loss of coral reefs will be a catastrophe for almost all tropical marine countries, but it does not in itself trigger various global climate feedbacks. That is to say this is a major tipping point RESPONSE, rather than being a DRIVER of future changes". The sole drift
Ariel.
Your charm so strongly works 'em, About MeName:Caspar Henderson Location:Oxford, United Kingdom "Mike", the world's first hydrogen bomb, vaporised Elugelap island and other parts of the Enewetak atoll on 1 November 1952. In the half century or so since then humans have destroyed around a quarter - some say a half - of all tropical coral reefs. Will the rest be gone within another fifty years - or less? This blog is connected to an investigation and Coral Bones, a book for non specialists which, it's hoped, will help broaden awareness so that more people will help make a difference for the better. (The author's other blog is Grains of Sand) Links· Asia Pacific Coral Reef Symposium · Climate statement from 11 national academies · Corals and coral reefs (1979) · CORDIO · GCRMN · GEFCoral · ICRAN · ICRIN · International Society for Reef Studies · ITMEMS · JMS Fund · "Mike" · NOAA SST Anomaly and HotSpot charts · ReefBase · Royal Society - ocean acidification · SeaWeb · Small Island Developing States · UNEP Previous Posts |
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